Meta Earnings Preview: AI Capex Estimates Range Up to $250 Billion as Investors Weigh Spending Risk

Market estimates for Meta Platforms (META-US) capital expenditures this year center near $140 billion, with 2027 consensus averaging about $190 billion and the highest forecasts exceeding $250 billion, according to Uanalyze. The wide dispersion underscores a lack of consensus on how aggressively the company will fund its AI buildout, putting capex guidance in sharp focus ahead of its third-quarter report, due after the close on Oct. 21. More spending has not been a reliable positive. Last October, Meta disclosed third-quarter results showing capex growth outpacing revenue growth and raised its investment plans; shares fell more than 10% that day, and S&P 500 technology stocks lost over 10% cumulatively in the following three weeks. This year's difference is product momentum: Meta's September launch of AI agent Muse drove a 20% gain in two weeks. Financing conditions, however, are tighter, with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% versus under 4% a year earlier, raising cost concerns for AI-related issuers including CoreWeave (CRWV-US) and Oracle (ORCL-US).