Middle East Conflict to Add $39 Billion to Global LNG Import Bill in 2026, Rystad Says

Global LNG importers will spend at least $39 billion more on contracted and spot supplies in 2026 due to Middle East disruptions, even as volumes fall 60.7 million tonnes, according to Rystad Energy. Assumed unavailability of Qatari and UAE deliveries via the Strait of Hormuz from March through year-end lifts total portfolio costs to $256.3 billion from a pre-war estimate of $217.8 billion, an 18% increase. Europe faces the largest regional increase, with its LNG bill rising at least $12 billion, or 18%, despite demand falling 24 million tonnes. Europe is set to lose 20.6 million tonnes of the 24.7 million tonnes of Qatari LNG scheduled for 2026, and its spot import share is projected to rise just 5.49% after demand destruction. East Asia, with spot at only 14.5% of imports, faces the smallest relative cost increase outside the Middle East at 9.7%, aided by oil-linked contracts comprising 82% of its long-term supply. Rystad senior analyst Christoph Halser said diversifying pricing benchmarks helps manage costs but does not guarantee physical supply, and importers must assess disruption exposure alongside price risk.