Analyst Warns 45% of Planned 2027 AI Data Center Capacity May Not Be Built, Threatening Nvidia Demand

Seaport Research Partners analyst Jay Goldberg estimates only 30GW of the 55GW in announced 2027 AI data center capacity will be completed, a potential 45% shortfall that could threaten future demand for Nvidia (NVDA) chips. Goldberg maintains a "sell" rating and a $180 price target, about 15% below Thursday's close. He cited electrician labor shortages, insufficient gas turbine supply and grid interconnection problems as the main obstacles to construction. Microsoft (MSFT) recently exited a Nvidia-backed Nscale data center project in England after its power connection slipped to the 2030s; the site was to host more than 23,000 Nvidia GPUs. Amazon (AMZN) faces similar issues, with some Nvidia servers sitting idle in warehouses awaiting adequate power. Goldberg also flagged financial risk: Nvidia is helping finance some chip buyers, and he characterized its investments, loans and credit guarantees as "another form of discounting" that supports sales without formal price cuts. Nvidia's supply and capacity commitments totaled $279 billion as of July 26, more than double the $119 billion reported the prior quarter, plus $36 billion in cloud service commitments. SemiAnalysis is more optimistic, noting 40 campuses exceeding 24GW are in advanced construction. On Polymarket, the odds Nvidia becomes the world's most valuable company by end-2026 fell to 56% from above 80% earlier this month.