Standard Chartered Sees Oil Staying Above $100 as Gulf Supply Risks Persist Despite Tehran Talks

Oil prices are likely to remain elevated over the coming months even if Middle East diplomacy yields a deal, with the pace and durability of Gulf supply recovery the main driver of market balances, Standard Chartered said. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani delegations met Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to explore a regional security framework. The bank expects a legitimate agreement to quickly strip some geopolitical risk premium from crude, though prices will stay high until shipping lanes are secure and Gulf supply is reliable. Refined products carry the most risk, with diesel shortages and freight costs feeding inflation beyond crude. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 282.7 million barrels, its lowest since 1982, per the latest EIA figures, and government refilling will add to demand. In gas, Standard Chartered reiterated a high price floor for Europe through winter, with TTF at €98.58/MWh on Wednesday as heating demand rose and net storage injections fell sharply.