West Faces Costly Race to Rebuild Depleted Oil Stockpiles, Keeping Prices Elevated

Western nations face a costly race to rebuild strategic oil reserves after drawing down roughly half their usable emergency buffer, a structural shift set to keep crude prices elevated for years even after supply normalizes. Total oil inventories excluding China have fallen to an unprecedented low of 6.8 billion barrels from 7.4 billion at the conflict's start, according to Wood Mackenzie. Outside China, companies and governments have drawn about 700 million barrels and hold only 700-800 million remaining, analyst Andy Harbourne said. Rystad Energy forecasts a post-conflict supply surplus of 3.5-4 million barrels per day, but expects the rush to restock to absorb it. IEA nations must replace 420 million barrels of used reserves, global commercial stocks are down 300 million since February, and China will rebuild 137 million barrels drawn from its inventories. Rystad expects government-led stock builds to add 2.5 million barrels per day of demand over 18 months. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned stockpiles are "scarily thin," while Rystad's Jorge León said governments now view larger reserves as a strategic priority.