IEA Chief Warns Energy Markets Won't Normalize Until 2027 as Brent Tops $111

Global energy markets remain more than a year from normalizing and are highly vulnerable to "overlapping crises" in the Middle East, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned Tuesday at the Financial Times Energy Transition Summit in London. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is trading above $111 a barrel and could settle at its highest level since May if it holds. "I don't see any credible pathway that 2027 will be a year of normalisation," Birol said, noting the Strait of Hormuz has been closed once and "can be closed again." The waterway, which carried a fifth of world oil and gas supply before the war, has seen intensifying attacks on ships. Birol cautioned that judging the crisis by crude prices alone is "myopic," pointing to diesel prices that have doubled from pre-war levels amid attacks on Russian refineries and upcoming seasonal demand. He said IEA members, which hold about 1.6 billion barrels in reserve, "will not hesitate" to release further stocks, after agreeing a historic 400 million-barrel release in March, 80% of which has been delivered.