Oracle Shares Fall 2.78% on AI Debt Concerns; Analysts Say Selloff Overdone, Maintain $284 Target

Oracle shares closed down 2.78% at $125.54 on Thursday, extending a roughly 35% year-to-date decline that puts the stock on pace for its worst annual performance since 2001, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The stock has fallen about 53% over the past 12 months and roughly 12% in the past month. Cantor Fitzgerald and Evercore ISI said the market is overstating Oracle's AI expansion risk, arguing its mature software business and room to restructure financing set it apart from emerging AI cloud peers. Cantor estimates Oracle needs to raise about $76 billion through fiscal 2029 to fund AI infrastructure, and noted some five-year credit default swaps are quoted near 300 basis points. Cantor estimated OpenAI accounts for roughly half of Oracle's remaining performance obligations but said major debt repayments do not begin until 2032. It maintained an Overweight rating and $284 price target, implying about 120% upside. Evercore said Oracle's core software business alone is worth about $100 per share. Oracle hosts an analyst day next week.