Fed Expected to Hold Rates at 3.75%-4.00% as Traders Eye December Hike

The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, with markets pricing above 90% odds of a hold, according to CME FedWatch. The federal funds rate stands at 3.75% to 4.00% following September's unanimous 12-0 hike, the first since 2023. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, with gasoline up 9.1% for the month. Hiring is slowing: employers added just 29,000 jobs in September against forecasts of about 90,000, and unemployment stood at 4.2%. Oil near $100 a barrel, driven by the U.S.-Iran war, is fueling inflation and keeping the 10-year Treasury yield around 5% after peaking at 5.31% on Oct. 5. Bitcoin trades near $80,700, below a support-now-resistance zone. Markets now assign 75% to 80% odds to a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting. Analysts expect a "hawkish hold," with rates unchanged while leaving further tightening on the table.