Treasury Yields Climb as Auction-Cut Timing Uncertain; 10-Year Back to 5.14%

Wall Street is bracing for prolonged heavy long-dated Treasury supply after the Treasury's primary dealer survey offered no clear signal on trimming 20- and 30-year auctions, pushing yields higher on Monday. The 10-year note rose to about 5.14% and the 30-year to roughly 5.47%, reversing part of last week's rally. Earlier this month the 10-year touched 5.31%, a 24-year high, before dip-buying in the $32 trillion market and AI-trade worries pulled it to about 5.04% last week. That rebound partly priced in expectations of reduced long-end supply. TD Securities' Gennadiy Goldberg said cuts are appropriate but may be one to two quarters away. Citigroup expects Treasury to announce $3 billion reductions per auction, cutting new 20-year sales to $13 billion and 30-year to $22 billion. All eyes are on the Nov. 4 quarterly refunding announcement. With debt above $40 trillion and the deficit near $2 trillion, shifting issuance toward cheaper bills is gaining traction, though Threadneedle's Ed Al-Hussainy and Janney's Guy LeBas flag inflation and AI-related credit risk as persistent pressures.