22V Research Warns of Four Inflation Risks, Forecasts Three Fed Rate Hikes Through 2027

22V Research said Tuesday that four converging inflation risks could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates three times between now and the end of 2027, including a potential wave of concentrated price increases early next year. The Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10-2 vote, its first pause since Chair Kevin Warsh oversaw a quarter-point hike in September; the two dissents favored another increase. Warsh said no firm conclusion has been reached on whether further tightening is needed. 22V President Dennis DeBusschere cited four risks: the widening core-inflation impact of the Iran war, with Brent January futures near $111 a barrel and August core PCE at 3% year-over-year versus 3.4% headline; AI-driven electronics price gains, sustained as big-tech equity dilution lowers the odds of a capex slowdown; the fading buffer from tariff refunds that Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) used to absorb costs; and a likely cluster of annual price resets in January.