10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.34%, Highest Since 2002, as Bond Selloff Extends Into Fourth Quarter

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a 24-year high Thursday, reaching 5.34% as elevated oil prices, persistent inflation, heavy government borrowing and strong economic growth keep rate expectations pinned high. The 30-year yield earlier surpassed 5.65%, also a high since 2002, per LSEG data. The 10-year yield rose 87.1 basis points over the quarter ended in late September, its largest quarterly gain since the first quarter of 1994. It peaked intraday near 5.29% on Wednesday. Rising energy costs are fueling inflation, while an AI and data-center construction boom lifts expectations for growth and the path of short-term rates. Traders expect at least four more Fed hikes through the end of 2027 after September's increase. Barrenjoey chief rates strategist Andrew Lilley called it a necessary bear market in Treasuries. Investors will look to Friday's September nonfarm payrolls report and six Fed speeches Thursday, including Governor Christopher Waller.