Economists Forecast 10-Year Treasury Yields to Stay Above 5% Through 2026

Most economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in October expect yields on 10-year Treasuries to remain above 5% at least through mid-2027, signaling no relief from elevated borrowing costs. Only 17 of 64 respondents expect the yield below 5% by the end of 2026, and more than half see it topping 5% through June 2027 — a sharp reversal from July, when no economist anticipated yields above 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.12% as of Tuesday, down from a recent peak of 5.3% earlier in the month but well above its 4.2%-4.3% range in February. A global bond market sell-off is driving the surge, with yields tracking inflation concerns as elevated fuel prices linked to the ongoing war in Iran keep inflation stubbornly high. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh last month called the 10-year Treasury the "most important financial instrument in the world." Rising yields ripple into mortgages and other long-term loans, weighing on the housing market.