Russia Central Bank Holds Key Rate at 14%, Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast

MOSCOW — The Russian central bank kept its key rate on hold at 14% for the second time in less than two months, as drone attacks on refineries, government spending and utility fees kept inflation elevated in a near-stagnant economy. The bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1%–7.6% from 6%–7% and signaled rates will stay near current levels in the coming year. The decision matched the forecasts of all 20 analysts polled by Reuters. The consumer price index is up 6.2% since the start of the year, versus 4.8% in the same period last year. Petrol prices have spiked 21% and diesel 13.4% since the start of 2026 after attacks the bank called "one-off factors" idled refineries and triggered fuel-station queues. Underlying price growth remains 5%–6% annualized. The Moscow Exchange stock index fell 1.3% after the decision, while the rouble strengthened 1.5% against the dollar to its strongest level since early August. The bank lifted its 2027 average key rate forecast to 12.5%–13.5% from 10.5%–12.5%, implying another year above 12%.