Bank of Korea Warns Chip Exports Could Drop $100 Billion if US AI Spending Slows

South Korea's semiconductor exports could fall by $50 billion to $100 billion from earlier forecasts if major U.S. technology firms cut capital spending on artificial intelligence next year, according to Bank of Korea data submitted to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol. Under the central bank's "pessimistic scenario," which assumes a 10% decline in Korean chip unit prices, the export shortfall would shave about 0.4 percentage point off South Korea's GDP growth next year and push the current account surplus well below its initial projection of $430 billion for 2027. The assessment highlights South Korea's reliance on chips, which make up roughly half of its exports. Combined capital expenditure by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle has grown from $40 billion last year to an estimated $80 billion this year, and is projected to reach $110 billion next year. The BOK cautioned that considerable uncertainty remains over AI demand and the memory chip cycle.