SpaceX Q3 Report Puts AI Revenue in Focus as Capex, Merger Talk With Tesla Intensify

SpaceX is set to report third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, with its AI computing business drawing investor scrutiny as rapid revenue growth collides with heavy spending. Wall Street expects earnings of 13 cents a share, reversing a loss of 9 cents in the second quarter, on revenue of $12.8 billion, up 64% year over year, according to FactSet. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu estimates SpaceX's AI revenue at $6 billion, nearly triple the prior quarter, and projects signed AI compute contracts annualize to $54.5 billion—more than half the company's $100 billion year-end revenue target. He forecasts third-quarter capital expenditure of $19 billion, mostly for AI compute, against a $67 billion full-year consensus; one analyst sees 2027 spending reaching $336 billion. SpaceX plans to borrow $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips for data centers, months after raising $25 billion in debt. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, who expects another $80 billion in debt next year, called additional financing needs "the biggest risk in our model." Shares closed Monday at $147.96, up 1.3% and about 7% above the IPO price.