Raw Sugar Futures Climb to Highest Since December 2024 on El Niño Supply Fears

Raw sugar futures rose to their highest level since Dec. 17, 2024, on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, as El Niño-driven supply disruptions across major producing regions lifted prices. New York's most-active contract advanced as much as 2%, after surging nearly 8% last week. White sugar also gained. Supply problems are concentrated across several top producers simultaneously. In Brazil, heavy rains have slowed cane harvesting and milling. India's monsoon was the driest since 2015, cutting projected output to about 30 million tons. The EU's beet harvest is expected to run 11% below the five-year average. Green Pool Global cut its Central-South Brazil 2026/27 sugar output forecast by 3% on Monday. Sentiment has reversed from an expected surplus to a deficit, with CFTC data through Sept. 29 showing net short positions at their lowest in over 21 months. Analysts estimated $5.7 trillion in global losses from the 1997–98 El Niño over the following five years.