NVDA shares remain range-bound despite a record AI infrastructure spending surge, closing down 1.9% on February 11, 2026, after six months of minimal gains. Since August 2025, the stock has gained 1.9%, lagging behind TSMC (-52%) and AMD (+12%).
Global AI capex is projected to exceed $600B in 2026, per Bloomberg, but investor valuations have compressed. NVDA now trades at about 24x forward earnings, roughly in line with the Nasdaq-100 and modestly above the S&P 500, down from historic high-growth AI multiples.
The next quarterly report, due February 25, 2026, is seen as a key catalyst. Analysts note potential moderation in AI infrastructure capex growth, intensifying competition from Google TPUs and AI processor startups, and concerns about AI-driven revenue sustainability.
Some strategists remain constructive, citing strong revenue fundamentals and upcoming GTC in March 2026 as tailwinds. The critical test is whether earnings will justify the stock’s current price and validate long-term growth expectations.
Global AI capex is projected to exceed $600B in 2026, per Bloomberg, but investor valuations have compressed. NVDA now trades at about 24x forward earnings, roughly in line with the Nasdaq-100 and modestly above the S&P 500, down from historic high-growth AI multiples.
The next quarterly report, due February 25, 2026, is seen as a key catalyst. Analysts note potential moderation in AI infrastructure capex growth, intensifying competition from Google TPUs and AI processor startups, and concerns about AI-driven revenue sustainability.
Some strategists remain constructive, citing strong revenue fundamentals and upcoming GTC in March 2026 as tailwinds. The critical test is whether earnings will justify the stock’s current price and validate long-term growth expectations.